5-10 years from now when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up once more, we will look in the rear view mirror and realize that we missed the golden age for buying the dream home or being the “first time home buyer”.
Smart people say, that moment of knowing we have hit rock bottom is only indicated by the time when everyone is the most pessimistic. That moment is certainly getting closer.
“Smart buyers are buying now.” Why?
1. We are in the midst of the best interest rates we have seen since we are told, the 1950’s! 4.5% is an amazing rate to lock in for 30 yrs! Jumbo loans at 7%!
2. Sellers are watching the national news and know they are not in the driver’s seat right now so they are willing to negotiate. Even though we are not in a depressed or declining market, the sellers watch national news stories that say otherwise. Buyers can take advantage of the negative mindset of the seller right now about his property not moving fast enough.
National employment 3rd qtr 2008, down 500,000 vs. Houston employment at 60,000 new jobs.
Stable pricing is between 6-7 months of inventory according to A&M Research Center and Metrostudy. Same period facts of 3rd qtr. 2008, 6.5 months of new home supply in the market according to MLS and MetroStudy.
State Resale Supply Statistics
|South Florida||28 Months|
|Atlanta and Phoenix||13 Months|
|Charlotte and San Diego||10 Months|
|Santa Fe, Albuquerque||9 months|
|Colorado Springs and Raleigh Durham||8 months|
|San Antonio||7.5 months|
|Dallas Forth Worth and Houston||6.5 months|
I hit the largest cities and within these stats we have Raleigh and Charlotte in top 10 Recession Proof cities in the Nation and so is Houston, DFW, Austin, San Antonio but our inventory of homes is smaller.
Texas Markets 2008 through 3rd qtr. overall appreciation metrostudy
San Antonio: 4%
Forth Worth: 3.1%
Where are you doing business?
10 year average home appreciation for Houston: 5.31%. Houston does not have the huge appreciation but it is not a depreciating market.
Multi-Market Closings for New Homes by Annual Closings
|Colorado Springs||less than 3,000|
|*Salt Lake City||11,000|
|*(#1 Recession proof city in the US according to Forbes Mag. 2008)|
|**Most Flourishing Market in the Nation and State with Annual New Home Closings|
Texas has had and continues to have an overall escalating market.
From 1st qtr. 2000 – Homes in Houston, San Antonio, Austin and DFW were basically selling at $200,000.
Today DFW is around $270,000; Houston is close to $300,000; While San Antonio and Austin sell at close to $310,000. Slow and Steady…
- Affordability – Texas and specifically Houston is among the most affordable in the US
- More choices in Houston than most other cities – single family, condo, high rises, lofts
- The Meltdown is in Other Markets – not Texas “We have a Stable Local Market”
- Good time to trade up – you may sacrifice on selling end but capitalize on the buying end
- Interest Rates are affordable “right now”…we don’t know about summer or fall 09
- Homeowners are very realistic right now about home pricing – we could say homes are “on Sale” right now!
- Home prices in Houston and Texas are stable.
- Houston’s economy is strong
While others in cities that have enjoyed great appreciating markets are concerned they will not be able to build equity as rapidly as they did in real estate years past, in Texas, we have never seen the high appreciating markets, we only have seen in the past 10 years, slow and steady…If you plan to stick around in your home, you will see an appreciation of your property. NAR statistics show the average first time home buyer plans to stay in their home for 10 yrs. now as compared to last year’s survey of 7 yrs. Maybe people have become more realistic about how long it takes to earn equity or maybe they have more confidence in real estate assets they can see and feel than other market assets.
As much as we discuss appreciation, truth be known: People buy for Life style…not investment.
You couldn’t be in a better State or better City for selling real estate. The facts are crystal clear:
- You will have the best year ever if you believe in psychology of real estate.
- If you tell yourself it is a bad time – it will be.
- If you tell yourself it is a great time – it will be.
- But the facts say, “it has been and will be a great time for real estate”.
The Most Flourishing Market in the Nation and State with Annual New Home Closings is Houston.
Facts from MetroStudy 11/08
Investing in real estate assets right now is the best placement of your money; it is a better hedge than gold.
Dr. Dotzour, TX A&M Research Center 1/12/09
You couldn’t be in a better State or better City for selling real estate than Houston Texas.
TX A&M Research Center Data 1/12/09
More than 2 million jobs were lost between Nov 2007 – Nov 2008 in the Nation; representing 1.2 % of its labor force. The Texas economy gained 222,900 jobs during the same time period; an increase in labor force of 2.1%.
Real Estate Center RECON 1/13/09
Houston has the strongest job market in the US.
Metrostud, Jan. 12, 2009
Texas has the strongest job market by State in the US exceeding the nearest competition by 1000%.
MetroStudy, Jan. 2009.
Houston’s inventory of homes is 5-6 months on average. This is the lowest average days on market in the US.
TX A&M Research Center Data 1/13/09
“We are half way through our recession in Texas. It started out last Jan. 2008.”
Dr. Dotzour, TX A&M Research Center 1/13/09
Dr. Gilliland, A&M Research Center Jan. 12, 2009
Texas is the #2 Destination State for Retirees.
Dr. Gaines, TX A&M Research Center Data 1/12/09
Houston has the most affordable median home price of any MSA.
TX A&M Research Center Data 1/12/09.
“The Texas Land Sales Market is short of Phenomenal.